Bringing this number below 1 will lead to fewer people catching the disease than recovering from it, so the number of new infections will decline and the epidemic will die out. The estimated value of R0 for COVID-19 spreading through the population without restrictions is between 2 and 3. In mathematical modelling terms, this requires the average number of people to which every infected person spreads the virus (known as the basic reproduction number or R0) to fall to and remain less than 1. It requires us to be sure that we have passed the peak of the disease, that infections are declining and that we haven’t just temporarily suppressed the spread. To asses this and decide when to end the lockdown, we need to answer three questions.įirst, have we suppressed the spread of the virus enough so that it won’t produce a second surging wave of infections and deaths in the future? Answering yes to this is the most pressing item. Similarly, lifting the lockdown in other countries will depend on their ability to contain the virus and protect the public once restrictions have gone. This enabled authorities to contain the infection and reduce the number of cases by 90%. But importantly, this was combined with a massive screening programme to test people at high risk from the disease or anyone who had been in close contact with infected patients. The lifting of the lockdown in Wuhan followed a gradual easing of the restrictions by allowing residents to leave their residences on a limited basis.

This is especially true for countries where the spread of the virus, related hospitalisations and deaths are showing signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, those of us in or heading towards our second month of lockdown are starting to wonder when it will be our turn to lift or relax restrictions. The metropolitan-wide quarantine was in place for 76 days since January 23, and restrictions were seemingly effective, with the daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 significantly reduced from 1,500-2,000 at the peak to 10 cases or fewer a day now. The world is watching closely following the lifting of the public lockdown in the city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus pandemic started.

Lockdown meaning